Morocco's government has set an ambitious growth target of 5.3% for 2026, according to the 2026 Finance Bill presented to Parliament. The forecast is based on a projected recovery in the agricultural sector after several years of drought, combined with sustained public investment.
The agricultural sector, which represents about 12% of Morocco's GDP, is expected to grow by 12.5% in 2026, assuming normal rainfall. This rebound follows a severe drought that cut agricultural output by an estimated 40% in 2025.
Public investment, including major infrastructure projects and the reconstruction efforts following the 2023 Al Haouz earthquake, is also a key driver. The government plans to maintain a budget deficit of around 4% of GDP to finance these investments.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Morocco's GDP growth at 3.5% for 2025, with a recovery to 4.2% in 2026, slightly below the government's target. The World Bank similarly forecasts growth of 3.6% for 2025 and 4.1% for 2026.
Inflation is expected to remain moderate, around 2.5% in 2026, down from 3.1% in 2025, according to the central bank. The government's growth target depends heavily on agricultural output and global economic conditions.
