The strong El Niño event of 2023-24 is weakening and is expected to transition to neutral conditions during the April-June 2026 period, according to the latest advisory from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency's Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly update on March 13, 2026.
Forecasters now indicate a 62% chance of a La Niña developing during the June-August 2026 period. The probability of La Niña conditions increases to 78% for the core Northern Hemisphere winter months of November 2026 through January 2027. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and typically has global weather impacts distinct from those of El Niño.
This forecast contradicts the source article's claim of a looming "super El Niño" for the summer of 2026. The current El Niño peaked as a strong event in late 2025 but is now in decline. NOAA's official outlook makes no prediction about 2027 being a contender for the hottest year on record in connection with this ENSO cycle.
