On July 22, 2026, Morocco's Minister of Economy and Finance, Nadia Fettah, presented the government's growth forecast of 5.3% for 2026 to Parliament. This figure is notably higher than the 4.2% projection released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its Exploratory Economic Budget for 2027.
The discrepancy stems from different assumptions about agricultural output and the impact of structural reforms. The government expects a strong recovery in agriculture due to improved rainfall, while the HCP is more cautious, citing persistent water stress and global uncertainties.
Both institutions agree on the need for continued reforms to boost private investment and reduce the fiscal deficit. The HCP's forecast also factors in slower global demand and potential inflationary pressures.
Economists note that such gaps between government and independent forecasts are common, as they use different models and time horizons. The final growth figure will depend on actual rainfall, reform implementation, and external economic conditions.
