Japan's ongoing military expansion, described by analysts as a 'gray rhino' event—a highly probable but neglected threat—has accelerated under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government. In December 2022, Japan adopted a new National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program, pledging to double its defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027, reaching approximately ¥11 trillion ($80 billion) annually. This marks a historic shift from Japan's post-World War II pacifist policy.
Key developments include the acquisition of long-range cruise missiles, such as the 1,000-kilometer-range Type 12 surface-to-ship missile, and plans to deploy them by 2026. Japan also signed a deal with the United States in January 2023 to purchase 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, with deliveries starting in 2025. These moves enable Japan to possess 'counterstrike capabilities' against enemy bases, a departure from its exclusively defense-oriented policy.
Regional neighbors, particularly China and North Korea, have expressed strong concerns. China's Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that Japan's remilitarization undermines regional stability and trust. North Korea has condemned the buildup as a preparation for war. Meanwhile, Japan's 2024 defense budget request of ¥7.7 trillion ($52 billion) was the largest ever, reflecting a sustained upward trend.
The 'gray rhino' concept, popularized by author Michele Wucker, refers to obvious but ignored dangers. In this context, Japan's remilitarization is a visible trend with potential consequences for Asia-Pacific security, including an arms race and heightened tensions. The U.S.-Japan alliance remains central, with joint exercises and technology transfers accelerating Japan's military modernization.
