As of April 23, 2026, Morocco faces a dual threat to its agricultural sector and food security. The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted exports of gas and fertilizers from the Gulf region, leading to a 20-40% surge in input prices. This is compounded by the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is forecast to bring drought conditions to North Africa, potentially devastating crops.
According to verified reports from the World Food Programme and agricultural analysts, the war in Iran has specifically impacted the supply of key fertilizers like urea and ammonia, which are critical for Moroccan wheat and barley production. The price hikes are already being felt by farmers, with many unable to afford necessary inputs for the upcoming planting season.
El Niño, confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization to be active through mid-2026, is expected to reduce rainfall in the Maghreb region. Morocco, already vulnerable to water scarcity, could see cereal yields drop by up to 30% if drought conditions persist, as per historical data from the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture.
The combined effect threatens to increase food import bills and consumer prices, echoing the global food crisis of 2022. The Moroccan government has announced emergency measures, including subsidies for fertilizers and water management programs, but experts warn that long-term resilience requires diversified supply chains and climate-adaptive farming.
