Analysts at ING Bank forecast that the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CBU) will implement a gradual cycle of interest rate cuts through 2027. In a research note published in March 2026, they project the key policy rate will be lowered to 12% by the end of 2027, down from its current level of 14%.
The forecast is based on expectations of moderating inflation. The CBU held its key rate at 14% in its February 2026 meeting, maintaining a tight monetary policy stance to ensure inflation converges to its target. ING's analysis suggests that as inflationary pressures ease, the central bank will have room to begin a cautious easing cycle.
The Uzbek economy has shown resilience, but the primary focus remains on price stability. The projected rate cuts are seen as a measured response to a gradually improving macroeconomic environment, aiming to support economic growth without reigniting inflation.
