Tunisia's birth rate has declined to 1.7 children per woman in 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS). This is below the replacement level of 2.1, raising concerns about long-term economic impacts, including a shrinking workforce and pressure on the pension system.
The decline is attributed to rising living costs, delayed marriages, and increased female education and employment. In 2024, the total fertility rate was 1.8, down from 2.0 in 2020. The INS projects the population could start declining by 2030 if trends continue.
Economists warn that fewer births mean fewer workers to support a growing elderly population. Tunisia's old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise from 12% in 2025 to 20% by 2040. The government is considering policies to support families, such as childcare subsidies and tax breaks, but no concrete measures have been announced as of May 2026.
