According to a 2025 report by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), Morocco's population is projected to increase from approximately 37 million in 2024 to 43.6 million by 2060. This growth, however, will be accompanied by a significant decline in fertility rates, from 2.3 children per woman in 2024 to 1.7 by 2060.
The HCP report highlights that the declining fertility rate is part of a broader demographic transition, driven by urbanization, increased female education, and later marriages. The proportion of the population aged under 15 is expected to shrink from 26% in 2024 to 18% by 2060.
Conversely, the elderly population (aged 60 and over) will nearly double, rising from 12% to 24% of the total population. This shift poses challenges for pension systems and healthcare, though it also reflects improved life expectancy, which is projected to reach 80 years by 2060.
The report notes that Morocco's population growth rate will slow from 1.2% annually in 2024 to 0.3% by 2060. Net migration is expected to remain slightly negative, with more Moroccans leaving than returning.
