The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has dealt a significant blow to global fertilizer markets, with experts warning that recovery will be slow and difficult even if shipping through the Gulf resumes. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told AFP that "the damage is already there," underlining the severity of disruptions to supply chains that underpin global food production.
Fertilizer prices had already been volatile in recent years following the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which cut off significant supplies of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate fertilizers from both Russia and Belarus. The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of uncertainty, affecting shipping routes and production facilities in the region. Key producers and transit routes through the Gulf have faced interruptions, pushing prices higher and leaving farmers — particularly in developing nations — struggling to afford inputs for the upcoming planting seasons.
The consequences for food security are significant. The FAO has repeatedly warned that reduced fertilizer access translates directly into lower crop yields, threatening food supplies in import-dependent countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Smallholder farmers, who have the least financial resilience, are disproportionately affected by price spikes and supply shortfalls.
Industry analysts note that even a swift resolution to the conflict would not immediately restore normal market conditions. Factories that have been idled, shipping contracts that have been cancelled, and supply chains that have been rerouted take months or years to normalize. The compounding effect of multiple global shocks — from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Ukraine war and now the Middle East conflict — has left fertilizer markets in a structurally fragile state, with lasting implications for agricultural output and global food prices.
