A French demographic study published on Wednesday, May 27, 2026, reports a historic decline in birth rates across the Maghreb region, which appears to be sustained and is leading to population aging and slower growth.
The study, conducted by the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), indicates that the total fertility rate in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In Algeria, the fertility rate dropped to 1.8 children per woman in 2025, down from 2.2 in 2020. Morocco's rate fell to 1.7, and Tunisia's to 1.6.
This decline is attributed to increased female education, urbanization, and delayed marriage. The study notes that the trend is likely to continue, with the Maghreb's population projected to peak around 2050 before declining.
The findings highlight significant demographic shifts in the region, which have implications for labor markets, social services, and economic planning.
