On May 30, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) downgraded its monsoon rainfall forecast for the June-September season, predicting a 60% chance of deficient rainfall. The IMD now expects the monsoon to be 'below normal' at 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from an earlier forecast of 96%.
The revised forecast cites evolving El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically suppress monsoon rainfall over India. The IMD also noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, offering no counterbalance to El Niño's drying effect.
Deficient monsoon rainfall could impact India's agricultural output, particularly for rain-fed crops like rice, pulses, and oilseeds. The government has prepared contingency plans for drought-prone districts, including alternative cropping strategies and water conservation measures.
This forecast comes amid other economic challenges, including high food inflation and energy price volatility. However, the IMD will issue an updated forecast in July after the monsoon's progress over central India.
