According to IDF intelligence assessments, there are growing concerns that a potential nuclear deal between the Trump administration and Iran will largely or completely ignore the ballistic missile issue. This could allow Iran to pose a greater threat to Israel in any future conflict.
The assessment, reported by Israeli media on May 28, 2026, indicates that the IDF believes the current negotiations focus primarily on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief, leaving Iran's missile program unaddressed. This would enable Iran to continue developing and stockpiling long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel.
Israeli defense officials have repeatedly stated that any agreement must include strict limitations on Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. Without such provisions, the IDF warns that Iran could enhance its ability to strike Israeli territory with precision-guided munitions in a future war.
The IDF's concerns come amid ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran, with the Trump administration seeking a new framework to replace the 2015 JCPOA. Israeli security sources say they are closely monitoring the situation and preparing for all scenarios.
