As of August 2026, the geopolitical landscape of West Africa is undergoing significant shifts, with Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire closely monitoring developments involving France, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The AES, formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in September 2023, has consolidated its break from ECOWAS, officially withdrawing in January 2025. This has created a new dynamic in the region, prompting traditional allies like Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire to reassess their positions.
France, once a dominant military and economic power in its former colonies, has reduced its military presence in the region. French troops have withdrawn from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger following coups and rising anti-French sentiment. In 2025, France also closed its military bases in Senegal and Chad, signaling a broader strategic retreat. However, France retains economic and diplomatic ties with countries like Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, which have not joined the AES.
Senegal, under President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, has pursued a more independent foreign policy, emphasizing sovereignty and diversification of partnerships. In 2025, Senegal signed a defense cooperation agreement with the AES, while maintaining dialogue with France and ECOWAS. Côte d'Ivoire, led by President Alassane Ouattara, has remained a key French ally in the region, but has also expressed interest in mediating between ECOWAS and the AES to restore regional unity.
The AES has proposed a confederation and is working on a joint security force and economic initiatives, including a common currency and infrastructure projects. These moves have raised concerns in Dakar and Abidjan about the potential fragmentation of West Africa and its impact on trade, security, and migration. Both countries are closely watching the AES's progress, as well as France's evolving role, to calibrate their own strategies.
As of August 2026, no formal realignment has occurred, but the situation remains fluid. Analysts suggest that Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire are balancing their historical ties with France against the growing influence of the AES, seeking to maintain stability and protect their national interests in a changing regional order.
