According to a report by the French Council of Orientation for Retirement (COR), the elderly dependency rateβthe ratio of people aged 65 and over to those aged 20-64βcould reach nearly 40% by 2050. This projection is based on demographic trends showing a rapidly aging population in France.
The COR report, published in 2025, indicates that the dependency rate was around 34% in 2020 and is expected to increase steadily. By 2050, it could hit 39.5% under current demographic assumptions, including life expectancy gains and low fertility rates.
This trend poses significant challenges for the pension system, as fewer workers will support a growing number of retirees. The COR emphasizes that without reforms, the system's financial balance could deteriorate, requiring adjustments to contribution rates or retirement age.
Experts note that similar trends are observed across Europe, with countries like Germany and Italy facing even higher dependency ratios. The data underscores the need for policy measures to ensure the sustainability of pension systems.
