The African Development Bank (AfDB) Group has warned that Africa's trade finance gap could exceed $100 billion again if rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global trade and supply chains persist. The warning is contained in the AfDB's African Economic Outlook 2026 report, released on May 28, 2026.
According to the report, the trade finance gap in Africa was estimated at $81 billion in 2025, down from $120 billion in 2024, but risks widening again due to ongoing conflicts, trade fragmentation, and climate-related shocks. The AfDB noted that the gap disproportionately affects small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which account for about 80% of Africa's trade finance requests but face rejection rates of up to 45%.
The report highlights that addressing the gap could boost intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and support economic diversification. The AfDB recommends expanding digital trade finance platforms, strengthening local banks, and de-risking lending to SMEs.
AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina stated, 'Closing the trade finance gap is critical for Africa's economic transformation and resilience against global shocks.' The bank has committed $1 billion annually to trade finance through its Trade Finance Program.
