Bulgaria continues to face the most severe population decline in the European Union, a crisis primarily driven by a high mortality rate and sustained low birth rates. According to 2024 data from Eurostat, Bulgaria recorded the highest crude death rate in the EU at 18.4 deaths per 1,000 persons, significantly above the EU average of 11.0.
The natural population change remains deeply negative. In 2023, there were approximately 46,500 live births in Bulgaria compared to nearly 88,000 deaths, resulting in a natural decrease of over 41,000 people. This trend of deaths far outnumbering births has persisted for decades, contributing to a rapid shrinkage and aging of the population.
Demographic experts cite several interconnected factors for the high mortality, including an aging population structure, high rates of cardiovascular diseases, and significant outward migration of younger, working-age citizens. The emigration wave, particularly after Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007, has exacerbated the issue by reducing the number of potential parents and further skewing the age balance.
The government has implemented some policies, such as financial incentives for childbirth, but these have had limited impact in reversing the long-term trend. The sustained demographic decline poses serious challenges for Bulgaria's economic growth, pension system sustainability, and labor market.
