A Spanish military study, reported by El Confidencial on May 24, 2026, warns that Spain's historic dominance in the Gibraltar Strait is diminishing as Morocco expands its port, diplomatic, and maritime influence between the Atlantic and Mediterranean. The study, conducted by the Spanish Armed Forces' Center for National Defense Studies (CESEDEN), highlights that Morocco's port of Tanger Med, which handled over 8 million containers in 2025, has surpassed Spain's Algeciras as the leading container port in the Mediterranean.
The report notes that Morocco's diplomatic efforts, including recognition of its maritime claims by several nations, and its growing merchant fleet—now the 20th largest globally—are shifting the balance of power. Spain's merchant fleet has declined by 15% since 2020, according to the Spanish Shipowners' Association (ANAVE). The study also cites cooling bilateral relations, particularly over the Western Sahara dispute and migration issues, as factors weakening Spain's strategic position.
However, the study does not predict an imminent loss of control, as Spain retains key naval bases and NATO support. The Spanish Ministry of Defense has not officially commented on the report, but analysts suggest it reflects growing concern within military circles about long-term trends in the region.
