Prediction markets, where users bet on the outcomes of future events such as elections or economic indicators, have gained traction as a way to profit from news. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow trading on probabilities, with contracts settling based on real-world results.
As of May 2026, Polymarket has processed over $1 billion in trading volume on U.S. election-related contracts, according to public data. These markets are often cited for their accuracy in forecasting, sometimes outperforming polls.
Regulatory scrutiny remains, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reviewing whether such platforms constitute illegal gambling. In 2025, the CFTC proposed rules to ban certain event contracts, but enforcement has been uneven.
Critics warn of potential manipulation, while proponents argue they aggregate diverse information. The rise of crypto-based platforms has further expanded access, though risks of fraud persist.
