A new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, released on 12 May 2026, shows a narrowing gap between the government and opposition in New Zealand's 2026 election race. The poll projects Labour would win 41 seats, National 39, NZ First 15, the Greens 12, ACT eight, and Te Pāti Māori five seats.
In terms of preferred Prime Minister, National's Christopher Luxon saw a one-point increase, while Labour's Chris Hipkins remained steady. The poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between 8 and 10 May 2026, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.
This result suggests a tight contest, with no single party able to form a government outright. Coalition negotiations would likely be required, with NZ First and the Greens playing key roles.
