A new Taxpayers' Union Curia poll released on Friday shows the National-led coalition still in a position to form a government, but by the slimmest of margins. The poll gives National 36.2 percent, ACT 8.4 percent, and NZ First 4.9 percent, combining for 49.5 percent, just enough for a one-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament.
The opposition Labour Party is at 27.1 percent, the Greens at 10.2 percent, and Te Pāti Māori at 3.4 percent. The Opportunities Party (TOP) would enter parliament with 6.1 percent, a significant increase from previous polls, potentially reshaping the parliamentary arithmetic.
According to the poll, if TOP were to hold the balance of power, it could complicate coalition negotiations. However, the current coalition's narrow majority means it can continue governing without additional support.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers' Union, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percent. The sample size was 1,000 eligible voters.
