The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a forecast indicating a 60% likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging by May 2026. This prediction is based on recent climate models and sea surface temperature monitoring in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which can disrupt weather patterns globally. The WMO notes that while the probability is significant, the exact timing and intensity remain uncertain.
If El Niño develops, it could lead to increased rainfall in some regions and droughts in others, affecting agriculture, water resources, and public health. The WMO advises governments and agencies to prepare for potential impacts, including extreme weather events.
This forecast updates earlier predictions from early 2026, which suggested a neutral ENSO phase transitioning to El Niño. The WMO continues to monitor conditions closely and will provide further updates as data evolves.
