Recent claims that Brexit has been vindicated by an EU economic blunder are not supported by available evidence. The United Kingdom formally left the European Union on 31 January 2020 and exited the single market and customs union on 1 January 2021. Since then, multiple economic studies have documented negative effects on UK trade and growth, while the EU has continued to grow, albeit slowly.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK's exit from the EU is expected to reduce long-run productivity by around 4% compared to remaining in the bloc. The OBR's March 2024 forecast stated that Brexit will lower GDP by about 4% over the long term. Similarly, a 2022 study by the Centre for European Reform estimated that Brexit had reduced UK goods trade by 7% by mid-2022. These figures contradict the notion that Brexit has been an economic success.
The EU, meanwhile, has faced its own challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and inflationary pressures. However, the EU economy grew by 0.5% in 2023 and is projected to grow by 1.0% in 2024 according to the European Commission. The UK economy grew by 0.1% in 2023 and is forecast to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Neither economy is in 'disaster,' but the UK's growth has lagged behind the EU's since Brexit.
In summary, while the EU faces economic headwinds, there is no evidence that Brexit has been vindicated. The UK continues to grapple with the economic consequences of leaving the single market, and the EU remains a major economic power. Claims of an EU economic blunder are not supported by current data.
