Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecast upward for 2026, citing ongoing market tightness. The investment bank now expects Brent crude, the international benchmark, to average $86 per barrel by the end of 2026, an increase from its previous estimate.
The adjustment is attributed to a combination of factors, including persistent supply disruptions in key producing regions and stronger-than-anticipated global demand, particularly from emerging markets. Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions and operational challenges have constrained output, limiting the market's ability to build inventories.
"The supply-demand balance remains constructive," Goldman Sachs analysts stated in their research note. They emphasized that the current level of spare production capacity is low by historical standards, leaving the market vulnerable to further shocks.
While the forecast has been raised, the bank's outlook acknowledges potential headwinds, such as the pace of the global energy transition and economic growth trends. The new projection suggests a continued period of elevated prices compared to pre-2020 averages, impacting consumers and central bank inflation calculations.
